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What does Matthew 16:18 mean ('on this rock I will build my church')?

Contested

Texts of equal or higher authority genuinely pull both ways — SAM names both sides.

The text is genuinely contested: "this rock" most likely refers to Peter's confession about Jesus (or to Jesus himself as its content), not to Peter's person as a permanent institutional foundation — but the Greek word-play keeps Peter's person in view, and honest readers have disagreed here for centuries.

Jesus' own words (Tier 2) use two related but distinct Greek words — Petros (Peter's name) and petra (bedrock) — in the same sentence, and the text does not explicitly state which of the three possible referents (Peter's person, Peter's confession, or Jesus as the content of that confession) is "this rock." The broader witness of scripture at Tier 1–3 consistently applies rock/cornerstone/foundation imagery to Jesus himself, not to Peter personally.

The unresolved tension: The text does not state which of the three candidates — Peter's person, Peter's confession, or Jesus as the content of that confession — is the referent of "this rock." The Aramaic substratum (no gender distinction in Kepha) and the Greek gender shift (Petros vs. petra) pull in opposite directions, and neither the immediate context nor any same-tier text resolves the tension explicitly.

Key texts:
Matthew 16:13-20Tier 2 · Jesus
Now when Jesus came into the parts of Caesarea Philippi, he asked his disciples, saying, “Who do men say that I, the Son of Man, am?” They said, “Some say John the Baptizer, some, Elijah, and others,
Matthew 16:18Tier 2 · Jesus
καγω δε σοι λεγω οτι συ ει πετρος και επι ταυτη τη πετρα οικοδομησω μου την εκκλησιαν και πυλαι αδου ου κατισχυσουσιν αυτης
Matthew 16:18Tier 2 · Jesus
κἀγὼ δέ σοι λέγω ὅτι σὺ εἶ Πέτρος, καὶ ἐπὶ ταύτῃ τῇ πέτρᾳ οἰκοδομήσω μου τὴν ἐκκλησίαν, καὶ πύλαι ᾅδου οὐ κατισχύσουσιν αὐτῆς.

…and 12 more verses weighed in the full analysis.

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